April 2026

Periods of change and uncertainty often test energy markets the most. And our energy markets are once again being tested, this time shaped by events well beyond Australia’s borders.

The recent geopolitical developments have driven renewed volatility across global gas, oil and electricity markets, reinforcing the importance of staying informed and prepared. While domestic impacts remain limited in the near term, global price signals still matter - understanding what they could mean over the months ahead is critical for managing risk and planning with confidence.

In this update, we share our perspective on current market conditions, what we are watching closely, and how our account management services can help you to navigate today’s market.

As always, if you’d like to learn more reach out to our team or your Energy Solutions Account Manager. And for those joining the EUAA National Conference in Melbourne next month, keep an eye out for our team, we’d love to say hello.

Jennifer Tarr, General Manager Retail and Technology, Stanwell Energy Solutions

Industry news and insights

Conflict in the Middle East: what it means for Australia’s energy prices

The disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, teamed with the subsequent reduction in LNG supply and the sharp increase in oil prices, have driven LNG netback prices to around A$23.5/GJ for 2026. This has created upward pressure on global energy costs and triggered a rapid repricing across financial markets, including electricity futures.

While Australia remains relatively insulated in the short term due to strong domestic supply and policy intervention, global price signals are expected to flow through with a lag via oil-linked gas contracts from late 2026.

The shock has also prompted fuel switching in Asia, with some countries shifting from gas to coal, reinforcing volatility across energy markets.

Although immediate domestic impacts are contained, the risk of increased volatility remains elevated, particularly heading into winter, where sustained global disruption could begin to influence local gas and electricity pricing dynamics.

While Australia remains relatively insulated in the short term due to strong domestic supply and policy intervention, global price signals are expected to flow through with a lag via oil-linked gas contracts from late 2026.

The shock has also prompted fuel switching in Asia, with some countries shifting from gas to coal, reinforcing volatility across energy markets.

Although immediate domestic impacts are contained, the risk of increased volatility remains elevated, particularly heading into winter, where sustained global disruption could begin to influence local gas and electricity pricing dynamics.

Market overview

Forward electricity prices increased through March 2026, largely driven by global geopolitical tensions and a sharp rebound in oil and LNG prices. This movement was amplified by financial market dynamics, as investors rapidly repositioned, resulting in a strong recovery in forward prices to levels last seen in late 2025.

Despite this rebound, forward prices remain below prior year levels, with Queensland contracts for FY27, FY28 and FY29 all declining year-on-year. At the same time, a clear divergence has emerged between spot and forward markets. Spot prices remain relatively low and stable, supported by strong domestic supply from coal, gas, renewables and battery storage, alongside reduced demand from increased behind-the-meter generation.

Australia’s domestic market continues to benefit from adequate near-term gas supply and moderating gas demand due to battery uptake. However, global uncertainty is increasingly influencing forward markets, and there is a growing risk that sustained high international fuel prices could begin to flow through into domestic markets over time.

What’s happening in the markets

Forward curves lifted sharply in March following the global energy price rally, retracing declines seen earlier in 2026. However, prices remain below 2025 levels. The divergence between relatively flat spot outcomes and more volatile forward pricing highlights the growing influence of global fuel markets on longer-dated electricity contracts.

*Information supplied 29 April 2026

Energy Solutions for your business

Fixed or flex? Talk to us

If your business is to reduce risk in today’s market, locking in energy costs with a fixed energy contract can help to provide long-term certainty. But while a fixed term contract with Stanwell Energy Solutions brings with it the benefits of a set and forget agreement, our account management services are anything but. Our onshore account managers, know your account, are easy to reach and are on hand to explain market movements, with support when you need it. It’s a balanced approach: certainty where it counts, with ongoing support to help you adapt over time, and the reassurance that there’s always someone you can speak to who knows your situation. If you’d like to explore the benefits a fixed term contract can deliver for your business, our account managers are ready to talk.

Contact us today

Socials and events

In April, the Stanwell Energy Solutions team joined up with Energy Users Association of Australia to share our energy strategy and insights into the impact of the global oil crisis and Iran war on energy prices. Plus, we hit the road with customers APLNG and Brisbane Markets for a two-day tour of our Southern Queensland assets. If you’d like to learn more about our events and activities, we’d love to hear from you retailsales@stanwell.com.

Account Manager Alysha Fossett with APLNG and Brisbane Markets customers at Tarong Power Station

Sheer scale: Tour participants watch the last of the Wambo WInd Farm turbines installed

EUAA Members discuss Stanwell's Energy Strategy over breakfast at the April Member Mixer

EUAA and Stanwell Corporation leaders at the April Member Mixer

Connect with the team!

Book a meeting with the Stanwell Energy Solutions team. Email retailsales@stanwell.com.

Visit Energy Solutions on the Stanwell website.